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2024 Texas Housing Market Predictions

April 23, 2024

In 2024, the Texas housing market expects significant changes due to economic, demographic, and regulatory factors. Mortgage rates are predicted to stabilize, and a rise in homebuyers is anticipated despite challenges like rising prices and limited inventory.
The blog also discusses resilient home prices, regional variations, and growing construction, providing a comprehensive view of the Texas housing market for 2024.

Key Takeaways

  • The Texas housing market in 2024 is poised for significant shifts driven by economic conditions and demographic trends.
  • Home sellers are expected to return to the market, providing opportunities for buyers and sellers in the real estate housing market.
  • Prospective buyers should monitor mortgage interest rates, as stabilization is anticipated in the second half of 2024, impacting affordability in the Texas housing market.
  • Home prices are expected to continue their upward trajectory in 2024, albeit with regional variations, influencing pricing strategies in the Texas housing market.

Texas Housing Market Predictions for 2024

While a crash seems unlikely, the Texas housing market in 2024 holds mixed predictions. Experts like Dr. Yun at NAR forecast a busier spring season with increasing sales due to potential sellers re-entering the real estate housing market and more home construction.
Prices might see marginal increases thanks to tight inventory, though some predict stability or slight declines. Mortgage rates are expected to stabilize later in the year, offering some affordability relief. Multifamily rents in metropolitan markets will grow at an average of 2.5% for the year.
Pro Tip: Despite the challenges posed by the pandemic, sellers who held off on listing their properties in 2023 are likely to re-enter the real estate housing market in 2024.

Mortgage Interest Rates Outlook

While 2023 saw record-high mortgage rates cool the real estate housing market, 2024 offers hope. Experts predict rates to hover around 6%, possibly dipping below 6% by 2025. This could revitalize buyer demand after a sluggish 2023. However, remember that some areas, like Zapata and Pecos, might see price drops.
Pro Tip: Homebuyers should monitor interest rate trends, as slight fluctuations can impact affordability.

Projected Increase in Home Buyers

Predicting a definitive increase in Texas home buyers for 2024 is tricky. While experts like Megan Turnipseed at Norada Real Estate Investments anticipate a rise due to easing interest rates and inflation, others like John Meigs at Ramsey Solutions foresee continued stabilization or a slight decline. The Texas real estate housing market faces complex dynamics.
While historically high interest rates deterred buyers in 2023, a recent drop of around 7% may entice them back. However, low inventory and stagnant prices driven by a softening economy complicate the picture.
Pro Tip: Explore alternative financing options, such as FHA loans or down payment assistance programs, which can help mitigate some financial barriers to homeownership.

Continued Rise in Home Prices

The Texas housing market in 2024 is poised for continued demand and affordability concerns. While a slight price dip occurred in late 2023, the Texas Real Estate Research Center experts predict a moderate price increase of 0.5% by November 2024.
This is due to the ongoing inventory shortage, less than four months of supply statewide, and robust job growth attracting new residents.
However, rising mortgage rates averaging around 6% are expected to impact affordability, potentially slowing the pace of appreciation compared to 2022's surge. While some regions like Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin are expected to remain hot due to their tech industries and diverse economies, smaller towns like Lamesa and Dumas might see price corrections.
Pro Tip: Neighborhood amenities, school districts, and employment opportunities can impact property values.

Growth in New Home Construction

Despite an overall slowdown in the Texas housing market due to elevated mortgage rates, new home construction paints a more optimistic picture.
The number of new construction permits issued in Texas increased in December 2023 compared to the previous year. This suggests builders remain confident in the long-term demand, expecting a recovery. New home construction growth is fueled by the state's robust population and job growth in major metros like Austin, Dallas, and Houston.
However, challenges exist. Rising material costs driven by supply chain disruptions are squeezing builder margins, potentially leading to higher home prices. Additionally, the industry faces a shortage of skilled labor, which could hamper construction speed.
Pro Tip: Prospective buyers interested in new construction should conduct due diligence when evaluating builders. Researching builder reputations, inspecting model homes, and understanding warranty provisions are essential for smooth home buying.


As we look ahead to 2024, the Texas housing market presents challenges and opportunities for homeowners. Homeowners can achieve their real estate goals by staying informed, proactive, and adaptable.
Whether buying, selling, or investing, leveraging expert insights and strategic planning can help homeowners capitalize on emerging trends and make the most of their real estate transactions.
The Texas housing market is complex, and these are just predictions. For personalized advice, consult a qualified financial advisor and local real estate agent before making significant decisions.

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